Predictions through Generality

We always talk things in broader perspectives. What I meant exactly by this is , theres always you will find people tend to predict about things in future from their past experience and this “past” experience can be a reading in newspaper or news on television or statement made by scholars or even by politician. Before elections, every news channel sets up a panel to discuss who will win the elections. People jamming there are said to be shrewd and having experience in election analysis (My foot!!). They predict the result and mostly it is destroyed by the live facts coming out in front of them from different constituencies.
The fact of the matter here is , people tend to predict by having look at generality i.e. what generally happens. It may be in elections or in predicting FIFA world cup results. Recently animal who is in limelight more than Cristiano Ronaldo, Paul the Octopus had been predicting results of Germany’s matches in world cup. Many people were following him for results before match, and by coincidence he predicted all the result with cent percent accuracy. But did this little bloody animal really decide Germany’s fate in world cup? Any wise man’s answer will be a big NO. People inclined to trust it’s decision from past experience. They tend to believe Paul slowly as most of his predictions were right.
You must have heard gossips like , “Tendulkar will hit a century today”, “FedX will win wimblondon”, “Schumacher will win race today”. These things happen generally , the probability of happening of these things is always high. So there is nothing wrong to make predictions on this basis, it is natural tendency of human to talk like this. This is generality and this has always a preference in people’s predictions.
But before making any predictions we should always take the fact in to consideration that it is entirely possible that the opposite side of predictions always has equal chances to happen as predictions! (This is just a random thought which came after hearing one of many foolish predictions always being made with confidence)